EURO 2008 with a touch of Orange

[PiratesRule45]

I will be posting all my Euro 2008 bets in this topics. I apoligize for spelling/grammatical errors in my post, but english is not my native language.

Bet #1:
Match: Switzerland vs Czech Republic (Saturday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 AM ET)
Pick: Draw (+210 @ Gamebookers / +205 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 1 units to win 2.1 units.

This will a very important match for these teams. Portugal is the favourite to win this group and the other nations will battle for 2nd place. I don't have a clear favourite for 2nd place. The swiss have the homefield advantage and that could be the decisive factor in the battle for 2nd place, but a loss in their first game will make it very hard for them to qualify. They have a decent starting line-up, but the lack of depth is a concern.
The Czech have a strong side, but they are not as good anymore as they were a couple of years ago. They finished first in a weak qualifying group (the only real competitor in their group was Germany) the Irish are rebuilding their team and the Slovaks are slowly improving.
We have two evenly matched teams and the draw is, in my opinion, the most logical outcome here.

Bet #2:
Match: Austria vs Croatia (Sunday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 AM ET)
Pick: Croatia -0.5 (-105 @ Pinnacle & Nordicbet / -110 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 2.1 units to win 2 units.

Austria is the weakest country at the tournament and there is no way that they would have qualified if they didn't host the tournament. Croatia has a strong side, the loss of Eduardo could hurt their progress in the later stages but they should be able to beat this weak austrian side.

 

[PiratesRule45]

Bet #1:
Match: Switzerland vs Czech Republic (Saturday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 AM ET)
Pick: Draw (+210 @ Gamebookers / +205 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 1 units to win 2.1 units.
Result: 0-1

Bet #2:
Match: Austria vs Croatia (Sunday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 AM ET)
Pick: Croatia -0.5 (-105 @ Pinnacle & Nordicbet / -110 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 2.1 units to win 2 units.
Result: 0-1

Record: 1-1 (+1.00 unit)

Not a bad start of the tournament, the loss of Frei will really hurt the Swiss.

 

[teazeman]

looking forward to the european experts providing some of us that are less knowledgable with some info, excuse my spelling as well though english is my primary language i still suck!LOL

 

[MonsterBuck]

Good job man, tomorrow the big clash Italy-Holland, excited about that one!

 

[PiratesRule45]

Small preview for the Holland vs Italy game, mostly focussing on the dutch team. I am not sure if I will bet on this game, I want to see the dutch line-up first, but I will probably bet 1 unit on Italy if I decide to place a wager on this game.

Match: Holland vs Italy (Monday 20:45 CET/ 2:45 ET)

Huge game today for these teams. Italy is a contender for the title and the dutch are in a very strange position. We, the dutch, normally believe that we have a good chance to win the title, but things are different this year. Only 10% of the dutch believe that we can win and most people think that we won't survive the group-stage. The dutch are not used to being the underdog this early in the tournament and a win against Italy or France will be a surprise for most people.
Holland plays a 4-2-3-1 formation, but it's very hard to predict the starting line-up for this games. The coaching staff already made a decision, the players will be informed later today, but the media is in the dark. My guess:
Van der Sar; Bouma or van Bronckhorst, Mathijsen, Heitinga, Ooijer; De Jong, Engelaar or van Bronckhorst; Afellay/Van Persie, Van der Vaart/Sneijder, Sneijder/Kuijt; van Nistelrooy.
Robben is out for this match, this is a huge loss for the team. The medical staff has cleared van Persie, he might get some playing time, but he lacks match-fitness. The dutch defense doesn't look that strong, Mathijsen in particular is prone to make mistakes. The full-backs will also struggle against the Italian wingers. The dutch midfield looks better, De Jong had a solid season witn HSV, Engelaar was great on club level this season, but he is unproven on national level. Holland will field 3 offensive midfielders behind the lone striker van Nistelrooy, van Basten has alot of quality options for these positions. Van der Vaart, Sneijder and Afellay are all creative midfielders with the ability to create and score goals. Hard-working Dirk Kuijt deserves a first-team place against Italy, it will be important to put alot of pressure on the Italian central defenders, their passing is not the best and Kuijt is the perfect man for this job.
Italy plays a 4-5-1 formation and they will probably field these players:
Buffon; Zambrotta/Grosso, Materazzi, Barzagli, Panucci; Di Natale, De Rossi, Gattuso, Pirlo, Camoranesi; Toni.
I don't see any real weakness in this line-up. Great goalie, strong defenders (even without Cannavaro), a balanced midfield and a quality striker.

 

[2white]

don't know why here in my country everybody feels soooooo very comfortable about tonite game....Holland has great players. Individually there are very very strong (I wish my juve could buy at least a couple of them), but I don't know hoe they will work it out together. Obviously I will route for Italy all the way ,and I expect the champions to score twice. Hopefully it will be the first over of the tourney, because I don't think Francia and Romania will do much today. Best of luck to you dutchman.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

ur dutch? live in amsterdam?

and still going to take Italy?

 

[PiratesRule45]

ur dutch? live in amsterdam?

and still going to take Italy?

Yes, Yes and Yes :lolBIG:

Bet #3:
Match: Holland vs Italy (Monday 20:45 CET/ 2:45 ET)
Pick: Italy (+162 @ Nordicbet / +160 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 1 units to win 1.60 units.

 

[teazeman]

i know this might be a stupid question but are the players being paid for playing in this euro 2008 tournament? what about their other clubs, do they pay them during this time as well? what happens if an injury occurs?

 

[PiratesRule45]

i know this might be a stupid question but are the players being paid for playing in this euro 2008 tournament? what about their other clubs, do they pay them during this time as well? what happens if an injury occurs?

Clubs pay the normal wages, The dutch players get some money for every match that they play and a bonus depending on the result. This money is peanuts compared to what they earn at their clubs. Winning the championship usually means an extra bonus, but each country gives different bonusses.

Countries never paid a compensation in case of an injury, but some changes have been, are being, made regarding this. I am not sure what the current status is.

 

[PiratesRule45]

Yes, Yes and Yes :lolBIG:

Bet #3:
Match: Holland vs Italy (Monday 20:45 CET/ 2:45 ET)
Pick: Italy (+162 @ Nordicbet / +160 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 1 units to win 1.60 units.
Result: 3-0

Record: 1-2 (+0.00 units)

Didn't expect this, but I am a happy man:aktion033arty:arty:

 

[PiratesRule45]

Bet #4:
Match: Spain vs Russia (Tuesday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 ET)
Pick: Spain (-138 @ Nordicbet/StanJames / -140 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 1.38 units to win 1 units.

Small wager on the spanish, they have enough quality in their team to beat the russians. Russia has problems scoring and they are without Arshavin for the first two games. Their best striker Pobregnyak left the team with an injury and that will further hurt their scoring problems. These countries also met 4 years ago in Portugal for Euro 2004, Spain won the game 1-0, I expect a similar score for this meeting.

 

[PiratesRule45]

Bet #4:
Match: Spain vs Russia (Tuesday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 ET)
Pick: Spain (-138 @ Nordicbet/StanJames / -140 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 1.38 units to win 1 unit.
Result: 4-1

Record: 2-2 (+1.00 unit)

Will skip the other game. Leaning towards Greece DNB and I might do something in-play on betfair.

 

[PiratesRule45]

Bet #5:
Match: Czech Republic vs Portugal (Wednesday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 ET)
Pick: Portugal (-125 @ Gamebookers/StanJames)
Risking: 1.25 units to win 1 unit.

The portuguese played an excellent opening game. They are my main favourite to win the title. Their defense is incredible and the aging czech offense will have a hard time. The czech didn't impress me against the swiss and they didn't deserve to win that game. Portugal should be able to win this match and they could be the first country that qualifies for the next phase.

 

[teazeman]

g/l on today's action

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

thats what im saying!
going superhard on portugal today!!!

 

[MonsterBuck]

GL, Like Portugal aswell, its going to be a match with a fast Portugese side, and a slow/old Czech republic. The quickness and individual quality is going to make the win for them.

 

[Soprano]

GL!!! On Portugal as well!!!

 

[PiratesRule45]

Bet #5:
Match: Czech Republic vs Portugal (Wednesday 18:00 CET/ 12:00 ET)
Pick: Portugal (-125 @ Gamebookers/StanJames)
Risking: 1.25 units to win 1 unit.
Result: 1-3

Record: 3-2 (+2.00 units)

The portuguese did their job as expected, congrats to all that cashed, this one was easy.

 

[PiratesRule45]

Bet #6:
Match: Austria vs Poland (Thursday 20:45 CET/ 2:45 ET)
Pick: Poland -0.5AH (+131 @ Canbet/ +120 @ TheGreek)
Risking: 1 unit to win 1.31 units.

I still believe that Austria overperformed in their opening game and I will bet against them once more. They are still the weakest nations (together with the Greek) in the tournament. The polish were under a lot of pressure to get a good result against their arch-rivals germany, but they couldn't live up to the high expectations. The polish lacked creativity against the germans, but I am confident that my fellow dutchman Leo Beenhakker will give Roger Guerreiro a place in the starting eleven to add some much needed creativity to the polish side. Roger can be a match-decider with his assists. My prediction: Poland wins 2-0.

off-topic :think2:, it continues to amaze me that there are alot of bookmakers out there that offer different odds for ML an -0.5 handicap on soccer matches. The difference at Canbet was +125 for the ML and +131 for Asian Handicap, it's still 6 Euro (or 4.8%, or two extra :drink difference when you bet 100 EUR on the game and win.